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Epidemiology
Epidemiology Midterm
62
Medical
Graduate
06/28/2012

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Term
What is the Exposure (E)?
Definition
Independent variable that may determine the chance (risk) of getting a Dz. Can be measured via questionnaires, blood tests, chart reviews, etc. Measurement may be problematic if over a long period of time.
Term
What is the Disease (D)?
Definition
Dependent variable. Any deviation from health. This is more straightforward because we can rely on a Dx. However, the definition of the Dz is important and is based on the research question.
Term
What are the most commonly used Study Designs?
Definition
1. Cohort (follow-up)
2. Case control
3. Clinical Trial (Gold Standard for causation)
Term
What are causes of a non-null RR?
Definition
Chance, bias, confounding, and causation
Term
When can you conclude causation?
Definition
When you can eliminate confounding, chance and bias as possible explanations.
Term
Define Incidence (I)
Definition
The occurrence of NEW cases of Dz in a population of interest in a stated time period.
Equation:
I = (New Cases)/(# of People at risk)
Term
Define Cumulative Incidence of Risk (CI)
Definition
States what proportion of the subjects under study got the Dz X within the observation period T
Equation:
CI = (# of new cases over T)/(population at risk)
Term
Define Prevalence
Definition
The "commonness" of Dz in a given population at a stated point in time
Equation:
P = (# with Dz)/(# of people at risk)
Term
Define Mortality
Definition
Simply the incidence rate of death
Equation:
M = (# of new deaths)/(person-T)
Term
Define Cause Fatality Rate
Definition
Not a rate at all, it is a cumulative incidence (risk) of death
Term
Define Survival
Definition
The probability of staying alive for a specific length of time
Equation:
S = (total pts - dead pts)/(total pts)
Term
Define Strength of Association
Definition
A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect. When you have two intervals (continuous variables), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) is used to measure the strength of the association.
Term
Define Consistency
Definition
Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Large N's, multiple centers
Term
Define Specificity
Definition
The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of the causal relationship. Causation is likely if a very specific population at specific site and Dz with no other likely explanation.
Term
Define Temporal Relationships
Definition
Effect has to occur after the cause
Term
Define Biological Gradient
Definition
Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect
Term
Define Plausibility
Definition
A plausible mechanism between cause and effect
Term
Define Coherence
Definition
Laboratory findings, lack of such evidence cannot nullify the epidemiological affect on associations
Term
Define Analogy
Definition
The effect of similar factors may be considered
Term
Equation for Sensitivity
Definition
TP/TP + FN X 100
Term
Equation for Specificity
Definition
TN/TN + FP X 100
Term
Equation for Positive Predictive Value
Definition
TP/TP + FP X 100
Term
Equation for Negative Predictive Value
Definition
TN/TN + FN X 100
Term
Equation for LR+
Definition
Sensitivity/(1-Specificity)
Term
Equation for LR-
Definition
(1-Specificity)/Sensitivity
Term
What is LR+?
Definition
Likelihood ratio for a positive test result is the probability of a positive test result for a person WITH the Dz of interest divided by the probability of a positive test for a person WITHOUT the Dz.
Large LR+ values indicate better diagnostic value of the test (<10)
Term
What is LR-?
Definition
Likelihood ratio for a negative test result is the probability of a negative test result for a person with the Dz of interest divided by the probability of a negative test result for a person without the Dz.
Small LR- values indicate better diagnostic value of the test (<0.1)
Term
What is a Confounder?
Definition
A variable that distorts the apparent relationship between an exposure and a Dz of interest
Term
What is Confounding?
Definition
A systematic error in a study that arises from mixing of the effect of the exposure of interest with other associated correlates of the Dz outcome
Term
What is Bias?
Definition
Nonrandom error in a study that leads to a distorted result
Term
What is Selection Bias?
Definition
Sample distorted by selection process; cases/controls/both
Term
What is Information Bias?
Definition
Misclassifications of the variables
Term
What is Misclassification Bias?
Definition
Incorrect characterization of the status of subjects with regard to study variable, leading to a distorted conclusion
Term
What is Differential Misclassification?
Definition
Incorrect categorization of the status of subjects with regard to one variable (exposure) that is unrelated to another characteristic of interest (Dz status)
Term
What is Non-Differential Misclassification?
Definition
Incorrect categorization of the status of subjects with regard to one variable (exposure) that is unrelated to another characteristic of interest (Dz status)
Term
What is Ecological Fallacy?
Definition
Fallacy assumes that individual members of a group have the AVERAGE characteristics of a group at large (stereotypes)
Term
What is Overestimation?
Definition
Cases are more likely than controls to over-report
Term
What is Confidence Interval?
Definition
The correct interpretation of a study with a 95% confidence interval which is (-0.81 -- +1.41) is as follows:
Crosses 1 (truth) - anytime the confidence interval crosses 1, it is not usually significant
Term
What is Null Value?
Definition
The point on the scale of a measure of association that corresponds to no association (1 for the risk ratio and odds ratio and 0 for the risk difference and the attributable risk %)
Term
What is the Null Hypothesis?
Definition
Null is necessary for statistical testing and possibly conceptually and for keeping causality in perspective.
--All swans are white.
Term
What are the 3 Steps of a Manuscript Review?
Definition
1. Read the manuscript thoroughly
2. Wait...
3. Review Manuscript
Term
Define Statistics
Definition
1. Process of analyzing data
2. Description of a field of study
3. Data or numbers
Term
Describe the Types of Data
Definition
Nominal: dichotomous, binary, or categorical
Ordinal: stages
Numerical: continuous
Term
Describe the Measures of Control Tendency
Definition
Mean: average of observations
Median: the middle observation
Mode: most common value
Distributions: Symmetric- same shape on both sides of mean (use mean); Skewed- not the same shape (use median)
Term
Describe the Measures of Spread
Definition
Range: difference between smallest and largest
Standard Deviation: measure of spread of data about their mean
Variance: the square of the standard deviation. Measures the "spread" of a distribution
Term
Describe the Confidence Interval
Definition
A range (interval) around point estimate. Helps determine the "reliability" of an estimate. CI - based on mean of population, distribution, statistic, and standard error. Used when comparing between two groups, it is a measure of how "confident" we are that the statistics are TRUTH.
If CI passes 1, it means it is less reliable; if it doesn't pass 1, it's the truth
Term
Describe the P-Value
Definition
The probability of observing a result as extreme or more extreme than the one actually observed from chance alone (if the null is true). Takes into account the mean and variance of a distribution and estimates how "likely" or "unlikely" your observed outcome is.
Statistical significance: usually defined as p<0.05
--Smaller P value = stronger association
--Larger the sample size = smaller the P value
Term
Describe the Hypothesis
Definition
A statement about a population
-Test a null hypothesis (Ho) and an alternative hypothesis (H0 or H1)
-Alternative Hypothesis: what do we believe to be true if the null is rejected
Term
What are the steps to testing a Hypothesis?
Definition
1. Evaluate data
2. Review Assumptions
3. State hypothesis
4. Select test statistic
5. Determine distribution of test statistic
6. State decision rule
7. Calculate test statistic
8. Make decision
9. Conclusion: Have we found the truth
Term
What is a Type I error? Type II?
Definition
Type I: false positive, if we do a test 20 times, 1 will be wrong
Type II: false negative, did not have enough information to tell the truth
Term
How do you compare Mean values?
Definition
t-Test (Student's t-Test)
Term
How do you compare Median values?
Definition
Non-parametric tests (Wilcoxon rank sum, Kruskall Willis)
--Just means the sample size was not a bell curve
Term
How do you compare Proportions?
Definition
Chi Square or Fisher's Exact test - test categorical data "yes/no", %'s
Term
What are Measures of Effect?
Definition
Express how two groups or populations differ with regard to a measure of Dz frequency (I, CI, P)
Term
What is Relative Risk?
Definition
Relative risk is a ratio measure (not rate or proportion). A ratio is a measure of something in one population divided by the measurement of that same something in another population.
Term
What does it mean when RR does NOT = 1?
Definition
There is a statistical association between E (exposure) and D (Dz)
-E is predictive of or associated with D
Term
What does it mean when RR DOES = 1?
Definition
There is no association between exposure and Dz
-E is NOT predictive of D
Term
What is Medical Surveillance?
Definition
The ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of outcome-specific data for use in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health practice
--Active: system in which the public health unit contacts reporting sources to elicit reports
--Passive: system in which information is received from physicians as mandates by law
Term
What are the goals of serveillance?
Definition
-Estimate magnitude of problem
-Detection of Dz outbreaks
-Development of clues about possible risk factors
-Finding of cases for further investigation
-Anticipation of health service needs
Term
What is an outbreak?
Definition
An epidemic that occurs suddenly and within a relatively defined geographic area
Term
What are the three components of an outbreak?
Definition
1. A pathogen in sufficient quantities to affect multiple persons
2. An appropriate mode of transmitting the pathogen to susceptible persons; person-to-person; common source exposure
3. An adequate pool of susceptible persons who are exposed to the pathogen
Term
What are the important investigational steps with an outbreak?
Definition
1. Verify that there is an outbreak
2. Survey cases and contacts
3. Formulate hypotheses for causation and spread
4. Plan and conduct a field investigation
5. By a Hazmat suit and a machine gun
6. Analyze data using appropriate statistical tests
7. Test hypotheses against data
8. Formulate conclusions
9. Initiate control measures
10. Prepare a report for comparison to other outbreaks
11. Media interaction
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