Birdsall and Sindig 2001

1. Rapid population growth has a negative effect on aggregate economic growth

2. Rapid ferility decline -> decline in the prevalance and severity of poverty

3. High population growth interacts with poverty to create conditions for natural resource degradation.

- Income can affect fertility due to rising opportunity costs of high fertility at higher wages

argues that population policies should be used when individual preferences do not align with what is best for society

- Even if the common good is not a good enough reason to promote fertility decline, at the very least the other articles in this volume have shown that inducing lower fertility will improve health and living standards at the individual and hh level

 - Virtually everything that needs doing from a population point of view needs doing anyway

 “Cumulative causality, economic growth and the demographic transition.” In Population Matters.

Objective of paper is to examine the relationship between demographic change and economic growth

- Authors argue that age structure is an important determinant of how population growth affects income

Overall, population growth -> decreased economic growth

 -However, growth of working age population -> increased economic growth

3 dimensions of age structure and economic growth

Labor Market Effect:

- Direct effect on relative number of workers compared to dependant consumers

- Indirect effect on health of population

Savings and Capital Accumulation  (Lee and Mason, demographic dividend)

Education and Human Capital

- Parents can invest more money in each child if they have fewer children

- There are also feedback effects going on

- Once economic growth occurs, this may play into the age structure of the population

- The size and speed of the demographic transition also has important implications for economic growth

- However, recent diffusion of technologies has led to decreased infant mortality, even in poor countries

The previous findings support cumulative causation theory

- Income, capital, and demography act as both exogenous and endogenous factors

- Demographic factors affect economic growth and income levels affect demographic variables in a feedback system

- Income can affect fertility due to rising opportunity costs of high fertility at higher wages (Barro and Backer 1989)

- High fertility, leads to low education of children, leads to low value for time among these children, leads to high fertility and so on

- Explains why wealthy and low fertility regions tend to get wealthier, while poor and high fertility regions tend to get poorer

- “Poverty trap”

- However, it is not impossible to transition between groups

 has argued that increased population density has led to an intensification of agriculture via new technological developments

 Believed that any direct effects of demographic change could be muted by growth-induced technological change

Population Growth and Economic Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions. “Overview” Pp. 1-26.

Cassen argues that the clearest negative effects of high fertility can be seen at the hh level

- Mothers exposed to a large number of pregnancies have a higher risk of dying, children with large number of siblings will be more deprived in various ways

At the macroeconomic level, the negative effects of high fertility are more equivocal

- The influence of population size is mediated by a bunch of other factors; institutional capacity to set the right policies and incentives in place is critical in determining whether or not population growth will be accommodated without major negative consequences; but unfortunately, it is often in these same poor countries where these institutions are lacking

Merrick’s essay argues that fertility decline can be accelerated in 2 complementary ways

- Improved access to contraception for those who wish to limit their fertility (change supply)

- Social and economic changes can induce desire for lower family size (change demand)

- Opposition between “supply” versus “demand” theories of fertility decline is unwarranted, attention needs to be given to both

- Lloyd’s article explores the consequences for children of having a large number of siblings

- Finds that such children are more likely to be malnourished, especially if they are later children

- Nutritional deficits and parent’s limited capacity to spend time with each child leads to educational deficiencies as well

- Furthermore, in more traditional societies, these negative effects are likely to be concentrated among girls

- Birdsall argues that population policies should be used when individual preferences do not align with what is best for society

- Even if the common good is not a good enough reason to promote fertility decline, at the very least the other articles in this volume have shown that inducing lower fertility will improve health and living standards at the individual and hh level

 - Virtually everything that needs doing from a population point of view needs doing anyway

“Population and economic development.” In Hauser (ed) The Population Dilemma.

- Some key demographic characteristics of low-income countries include: high fertility, low or rapidly falling mortality, accelerating population growth, and a very young age distribution

- Association between population and national economic growth

- Looks at how changes in fertility could be related to future economic success in developing countries

- High fertility countries require more national income to be spent on immediate consumption rather than investment

- High fertility families find it more difficult to save than low fertility families

- Governments gain more net income in low fertility regimes than highfertility regimes (don’t have to give as many benefits to citizens)

- In a low fertility regime, governments can invest more of its money in productive ways

- In sum, reductions in fertility are very good for economic growth because they initially decrease the dependency burden due to children, which in turn permits the expenditures of savings and tax receipts to be spent in ways that engender more economic growth

- Labor force also more productive in a low fertility regime due to better nutrition, better education, etc.

- Association between population growth and income per head

- Lower fertility engenders more labor force opportunities for each member of the population, which in turn raises income potential

(Note: this does not discuss population aging, it was written before this became a global trend)

“The environmental implications of population dynamics.”

- Review of the environmental implications of population dynamics

- Population dynamics include size/growth, distribution, and composition

- Environment includes land, air, and water

- Mediating factors include science/technology, institutions/policies, and culture

Some key arguments

- Each additional person does not have an equal impact on resources (size)

- Population density and population distribution may have more negative implications for the environment than population size per say

- Ex: urbanization -> more air and water pollution

- Level of development has inverted U-shaped effect on environmental degradation

- Low levels of development have minimal impact on environment, early stages of development worst for environment, advanced stages of development better for environment

- Different energy sources have different effects on the environment

I = P * A * T

Environmental Impact = Population size * per capitA consumption * Technology

In the future, there should be more collaboration between natural and social scientists to help alleviate social problems

explores the consequences for children of having a large number of siblings

- Finds that such children are more likely to be malnourished, especially if they are later children

- Nutritional deficits and parent’s limited capacity to spend time with each child leads to educational deficiencies as well

- Furthermore, in more traditional societies, these negative effects are likely to be concentrated among girls

An Essay on the Principle of Population or a View of its Past and Present Effect on Human Happiness. Pp. 1-13.

Response to enlightenment (hope, opptomism for the future, social improvement, int'l trade, soc contract)

He is a pessimist and fears overpopulation. Thought there were divine limits on poulation via limited food, resources.

Positive Checks - Keep population down,

war, famine, and disease

Preventative Checks - things to slow down growth

postpone marriage and kids, absentance and control

Feels the poor should change wand to open school for poor and educate them on waiting for children

Felt women should be given sufferage because they are moral voters, no poor laws

Misery and Vice and the cause production of over population poverty -> overpopulation

Guardian class, polictical inequity as natural leave old and sick, and kids, Okay that they don't survive

2 premises of argument

1. Food is necessary for subsistence

2. Men will continue to multiply

- Malthus is concerned about the fact that the power of population growth is greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence

- Argues that population grows geometrically whereas subsistence grows arithmetically

- If man outstrips his food supply, he will experience misery and vice

- This inequality will prevent the “perfection of society” that the French philosophers keep writing about

- However, Malthus notes that humans don’t blindly obey their instincts to reproduce; environmental factors (i.e. positive checks to population growth) get in the way of this “natural” process and keep fertility lower than it otherwise would be

- For instance, economic hardship lowers the fertility rate while good economy raises it (cyclical, like Easterlin)

- However, Malthus notes, it’s difficult to confirm this theory empirically when we only have data on the upper classes

- During times when their exists an abundance of food, men will have large families

In sum, 3 main arguments of Malthus

1. The population cannot increase without means of subsistence

2. When subsistence is abundant, man will continue to multiply

3. Population cannot be checked without producing misery and vice

argues that fertility decline can be accelerated in 2 complementary ways

- Improved access to contraception for those who wish to limit their fertility (change supply)

- Social and economic changes can induce desire for lower family size (change demand)

- Opposition between “supply” versus “demand” theories of fertility decline is unwarranted, attention needs to be given to both

Population and poverty in households: A review of reviews.” In Population Matters.

Objective of paper is to provide evidence of linkages between household demographics and wellbeing

How does fertility relate to poverty?

Is there a causal relationship?

- In the 1980s, researchers primarily searched for associations between fertility and poverty; some key findings included:

- Children from large families perform less well in schools

- Children from large families have poorer health

- Children from large families have impaired physical development

- Large family’s effect on parental wellbeing varies over the life course (wellbeing worse when kids are young)

- During the 1990s, researchers recognized variability in hh composition and resource allocation

- Women and female children often given less than their fair share of hh resources

Merrick recommends that policies aimed at reducing hh poverty must address the specific needs of families and coordinate changes across multiple sectors

“Population growth and economic development: Policy questions.”

- In 1984, the developing regions of the world were growing rapidly—at a rate of about 2.0% per year

- This level of growth had been prevailing since the post-WWII era

- These growth rates were nearly double those in industrialized areas of Europe in the nineteenth century

- Such sustained population growth caused concern, and the focus of attention has been on the social and economic costs of high levels of fertility

- Past studies of the economic consequences of population growth (for instance, Coale and Hoover, 1958) found that rapid population growth had seriously negative economic consequences

- However, the recent history of developing countries shows that they are continuing to develop (increases in income per capita, literacy, and life expectancy) despite continued population growth

- These observations point to the mediating role of human institutions in the relation between population growth and economic processes

- For instance, strains on one natural resource tend to increase its cost and to stimulate the search for replacement technologies

- This volume summarizes much of the recent research on the economic consequences of population growth in developing countries

- Focuses on fertility decline because fertility can be shaped by population policies, whereas mortality (low mortality always better) cannot, and international migration is unlikely to have a major impact on population growth

4 demographic consequences that follow from a reduction in fertility

1. The population will grow more slowly than it otherwise would have

2. At every time subsequent to the reduction, the population will be smaller than it would have been

3. At every subsequent time, the population will be less dense than it would have been

4. At every subsequent time, the population will have an age structure that is older than it would have been (smaller proportion of children, more elderly, and an older mean age)

Summary of results

- A reduction in fertility may reduce immediate pressure on natural resources, but it is likely that in the face of strain on a natural resource, humans would develop new technology to compensate

- Thus, it is unlikely that slower population growth will allow a larger number of people to enjoy a higher standard of living due to low natural resource prices

- Although slower population growth may reduce the degradation rate of renewable resources such as water and air, population growth may create incentives to create social and political institutions to foster conservation

- Slower population growth may raise the health and education of each child, however this effect depends where in the SES spectrum fertility declines

- Unless fertility is concentrated among high income families, it is likely to lead to a reduction in disparities among social classes

- In sum, slower population growth would likely be beneficial for the economic development of most developing countries, although the effects are modest

- However, these calculations do not account for how population pressures could fuel institutional change

- Nevertheless, the NRC argues that family planning programs can aid the development of developing countries by allowing families to have the number of children they desire and reducing the burden on society of whatever economic externalities of population growth exist

“Population and the environment: Scientific evidence.” In The Earthscan Reader in Population and Development.

Growth of the human population has definitely contributed to environmental change

- Many of these changes can be conceived of as ailments or losses

- Destruction of forest, soil erosion and degradation in certain major regions, losses of species of plants and animals, etc.

- Nevertheless, human innovation and technological advancements have mitigated many of the potentially negative effects of population growth

- Population policy is only one way in which governments can intervene in the relationship between population growth and environmental degradation

- Other policy options  (land tenure systems, tax breaks for green technology, etc.) should be explored

Identified 3 waves of concern about the environment since WWII

1940s-1950s: Can natural resources sustain economic growth and food production in the face of population increase?

1960s-1970s: Can the environment absorb the byproducts of modern technology, such as air and water pollution, asbestos, pesticides, etc.?

1980s-1990s: What are the global environment effects of population growth, such as acid rain, global warming, and ozone depletion?

The Ultimate Resource (Intro, Ch. 14, Conclusion).

- Introduction: What are the real population and resource problems?

- The real population problem is not that there are too many people or too many babies are being born; rather it is that others must support each additional person before that person contributes to the wellbeing of others

- Contrary to popular impression, food, land for recreational use and wildlife, and natural resources have grown less scarce in recent decades

- Life expectancy and standard of living have been increasing

- Who is any one of us to say that averting a prospective human life is a good thing?

Chapter 14: Population’s effects on technology, productivity, and education

- Why do the US and Sweden have a higher standard of living than India or Mali?  Why do the US and Sweden enjoy a higher  standard of living today than 200 years ago?

- Simon argues that the answer lies in increased technological knowledge and education

Simon’s main argument is that population growth fuels innovation

- Scientific discoveries positively correlates with population size in a given century

- Simon recognizes that money also plays a big role

China and India are not current scientific leaders because they are quite poor; but, Simon argues that these two countries produce a disproportionate level of scientists given their economic situation because they have such large populations

- The theory of economies of scale tells us that large-scale production is more efficient because it allows for use of larger and more efficient machinery, greater division of labor, knowledge creation and technological change, and improved transportation and communication

- Population growth does appear to reduce education expenditures per child in LDCs, but doesn’t reduce primary school enrollment

- Conclusion: The ultimate resource

- In the short run, natural resources are limited

- However, in the long run increases in income and population have reduced environmental scarcity

Simon believes this is due to the imagination, ingenuity, and innovations of people—our ultimate resource

The Millennium Development Goals Report.

Changes that the UN wants to achieve  by 2015

- Goals set in 2000

- Comparison point is 1990

- 8 main goals (only first 7 are measurable)

- Measured in terms of key targets

Target 1: Halve the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.00 a day

Target 2: Ensure universal primary education for all children

Target 3: Eliminate gender disparities in all levels of schooling

Target 4: Reduce by 2/3 the under 5 mortality rate

Target 5: Reduce by ¾ the maternal mortality ratio

Target 6: Begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS (and other disease (i.e. TB)).

Target 7: Integrate principles of environmental sustainability in country policies, and reverse loss of environmental resources

Target 8: Address the specific needs of developing countries, landlocked countries, and small island developing states

“Population theory.” From Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends.

Mercantilist theories postulated that large population strengthens the state, contributes to dominance of industry over agriculture as a source of wealth

Physiocratic school emerges as a response to mercantilism, privileging role of land in agricultural production as a source of wealth; however also favored population growth (large population desirable, but not at the expense of standard of living)

Godwin and Condorcet have boundless faith in science; believe that some day man will only have to work half day to satisfy needs and man’s reason is enough to curb sexual desire/overpopulation; ultimate belief in the “perfectability of man”

Malthus: Population size can only be checked by misery and vice

- Preventative checks: arise from reason, enable ability to see distant consequences

- Positive checks: include all factors that contribute to shortening of life (ware, plagues, famine, etc.)

Adam Smith: Increased population yields increased division of labor, which increases productivity

Marx: overpopulation ascribed to capitalist mode of production

“Malthus today” In Dupaquier (ed.) Malthus: Past and Present.

3 historical developments are in direct opposition to Malthus’ theory

1. The population of the world is much greater than he ever thought possible; positive checks to population growth have not occurred

- Boserup has argued that increased population density has led to an intensification of agriculture via new technological developments

- Contemporary Malthusians still maintain that increased population growth will fuel future catastrophes such as environmental degradation and the exhaustion of natural resources

2.  The passion between the sexes has abated (i.e. contraception is prevalent in a substantial portion of the world)

- Economic and social development has fueled voluntary declines in fertility

- “The separation of reproduction and the passion between the sexes is a major achievement of modernization.” (p. 237)

3.  An enormous increase in subsistence has taken place, which has resulted in large improvements in the standard of living in many countries

- Malthus wrote his essay just a bit too early to foresee the power of the industrial revolution for increasing means of subsistence

- However, many people today still argue that it is a waste of an investment to sustain population increase (for instance, by supplying food to overpopulated nations)

Nevertheless, a number of Malthus’ predictions and arguments still ring true today

- For instance, argued that private property was an incentive for men to work hard to achieve abundance of subsistence

-The main contribution of Malthus was that he suggested the existence of a “system” by which aggregate economic and demographic change were tied together by behavior at the family level

Millennium Goals Report

Goals met:

- reduced extreme poverty (income less than $1/day) by half

-reduced proportion of people who lack dependable access to improved drinking water by 1/2.

-share of urban residents in slums reduced by over 100 million.

Parity in education between boys and girls (97:100)

Improving:

Increased rate of primary school enrollment

Decreased number and the rate of U5

Increasing access to HIV treatment (goal not met)

TB rates decreasing since 2012, (projected to meet goal by 2015)

decreasing incidents and deaths of malaria

Slowed progress

decreased vulnerable employment by only a small amount (esp problematic for children and young)

decrease maternal mortality far from goal

Use of improved sources of water (especially lower in rural areas)

Hunger remains a global challenge

# of people living in slums is increasing (share is decreasing)

Demography of longevity, past, present, and future trends.

Describes gain in LE over years

Rectangularization of survival curve

Discusses potential mean LE and max (LE)

Predicts by 250 LE0 will be about 85-87 in MDC

Don't know LE before 1750

Data is not always realiable in the past and current with miscounts.

In early history, LE was in the 20s (teens-30s).

declining, chroic degenerative disease i.e. CVD.

much technology and life EX due to life style, smoking, diet.

Change in change rate: many are dropping and some are increasing.

Don't know if a upper limit of LE or non-zero death rate.

The world population is increasing and is predicted to increase in the future.

The increase really started in 1920s-50s.

In the future there will be fewer additional births as are now (lower population increments) but the overall popopulation will continue to rise until about 2050 when it will be approximately 9 billion)

Tragedy of the commons

Argues that the "population problem" has no solution because it's impossible to maximize both the size of the human populaiton and human happiness at the same time. 

Tradgedy of the commons refers to a course of action that maximizes individual utility bringing ruin to overall utility

"Freedom to breed will bring ruin to all" because it will exhaust natural resources

The only way to "solve" this problem is to force individuals to have fewer kids by relinquishing the "freedom to breed"

John Graunt

Developed early human statistical and census methods -> modern demography

Started collecting cause of death, added it up and looked at it by 10 year interval, asked what is the probablity that they will die before they exit an age range. 

1st lifetables w/probablity of surving to each age

Found high child mortality, a mortality bump in the 20s and raise in mortality at older ages.

LE @ 0 = 18, but LE @ 7 is much higher.

Also concerned with population health statistics.

One of the first demographers and epidemologists.

One of the MDG was a 2/3 reduction in CM from 1990-2015

On track to meet MDG for reduction in U5M

Industrialized Countries

E.Asia and Pacific

Lat. America and Carriebean

Central and Eastern Europe

Insufficent progress

Africa

Asia - overall

S. Asia

Developing countires

Least Developed

World-overall

Not enough progress on reduction, not an even distrubtion of reduction, the countries/area with the most progress had the highest starting place.

(Malthus wrote in response to Godwin)

was a utopian, libertarian, and part
of early feminist movements. He believed not only in the perfectability of man
but that sex would ultimately be replaced by other intellectual pursuits. Philo-
sophically the two diered in relation to the perfectability of man in relation
to nature and more relevant to population studies specically Godwin's notion
that carnal pursuits would be replaced by intellectual ones; this is important for
understanding how  predicted the size of future populations.

How we survived the Populaiton Bomb - some countries better than others

Natural Resources

Green Revolution

Relationship between income inequality & development

it is inverted U shape it reaches the peak at industrialization then declines with further progress