Term
| weather watches and warnings |
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Definition
occurs in three stages and can bounce between depending on weather
the difference between a weather warning and a weathered visor he is the threat to life |
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Definition
National Weather Service – sole source for watching and advisory info
* they are Not forecasters |
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Definition
| atmospheric conditions are favorable for the type of weather specified approximately 4-6 hours OVER a large area |
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Term
| step two –weather warning |
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Definition
weather is imminent or is occurring
smaller area with 1/2-1hr time span
* threat to life and property |
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Term
| step three-weather advisory |
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Definition
when advisories issued it indicates that it is imminent or occurring but NOT life-threatening
-usually just causes inconvenience ( fog) |
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Term
| weather forecasting tools: computers |
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Definition
| NWP-numerical weather prediction |
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Term
| computer atmospheric models |
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Definition
a.k.a. programs
-models are mathematical in nature
models are generally ran 1 to 4 times per day
data is issued in and out
these computers have certain biases dependent on who and how they were built |
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Term
| weather forecasting tools-methods of forecasting |
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Definition
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Term
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Definition
| this is a short term forecast usually indicates one to two hours of persistent weather |
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Term
| steady-state/trend forecasting |
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Definition
| indicating a steady trend of whether assuming nothing changes the time span last the length of the trend |
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Term
| analog method forecasting |
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Definition
| the six archives from the past and compares them to the president-basically compares a present storm with a past storms trend |
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Definition
| this is tied directly to the NWP |
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Definition
| taking climate into consideration |
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Term
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Definition
this is the 10% chance of rain typing. It's a statistical expression and is very misunderstood in the face of forecasting
forecasters certainty (today tonight tomorrow) X a real coverage expected in the area
ex (f)50% X (c)20% = 1000= 10%
* it is NOT how much time during the day it's going to rain
*NOT percentage of the area
it basically means from where you're standing right now you have a 20% chance of getting rained on |
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Term
| accuracy of weather forecasts |
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Definition
short term forecast-(today, tonight)-85 to 95% accuracy
medium-term forecasts-(2 to 3 days)80 to 85% accuracy
longer range forecasting ( 4 to 8 days) 70 to 75% accuracy
* generally the further out the lower the accuracy |
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Term
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Definition
2000 thunderstorms in progress at any given moment worldwide
more common in warm, equatorial climates
(mT)
moisture instability are important factors |
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Term
| three ingredients to storm |
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Definition
moisture (mT)
atmospheric lift
instability
*strength is dependent on the up draft/downdraft |
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Term
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Definition
| lightning begins in the mature stage most deaths occur in the dissipation stage his people think it's over always wait at least 30 min. after last lightning strikes... The majority of nonsevere thunderstorms will go through the stages within 1->1 1/2 hours |
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Term
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Definition
in Austin we have around 40 3T storm days per year
Florida is the T storm capital and also contains the most lightning deaths following in a close second is New Mexico Colorado.... This is largely because many people are outside |
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Term
| air mass T storms (grass snakes) |
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Definition
by far the greatest number of tea storms on an annual basis worldwide
their random… Not well organized and short-lived (1->1 1/2 hours)
ultimately, the downdraft( colder more dense air) cuts off the updraft in the storm commits atmospheric suicide
topographically (mts), geographically, and daytime heat related.. Usually no tilt |
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Term
| severe T storms (Anaconda) |
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Definition
is based on an and/or list
you only need just one of the following according to NWS:
1.presence of a tornado
2.1 inch diameter of hail at the surface
3. Convective wind gusts of 58 mph or more
*about thunderstorms worldwide less than 5% are severe |
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Term
| severe T storm illustration |
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Definition
to prevent storm suicide you must have upper-level winds spreading out in dispersing the storm.. They are longer-lasting because they have established a well-developed structure and usually last two hours or more
* mostly occur in mid-latitudes and along boundaries because boundaries create lift (dry lines, cold fronts) etc. |
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Term
| ingredients needed for a severe t-storm development |
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Definition
1. More than marginally unstable
2. Strong lifting mechanisms such as fronts or cyclclones
3. Air flow aloft to encourage strong updrafts and wind shear speed.( hi speed to low speed)
* think of traffic..fast>slow(downtown)...slow>fast(leaving) traffic always creates congestion
4.presence of an initial warm temperature inversion( Lid effect)-the buildup of pressure allows thunderstorms to develop and gain energy |
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Term
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Definition
| when winds shift in a clockwise manner *severe weather LOVES fearing winds |
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Definition
| win-win shift in a counterclockwise manner |
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Term
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Definition
line of thunderstorms
destiny of thunderstorms along the line can determine the severity of the individual thunderstorms
* the severe T storms are usually found on the ends because there is more potential energy,whereas the center has less energy because it's more collective and shares it with the rest of the tstorms (pizza slices) |
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Term
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Definition
collective massive thunderstorms
main threats:heavy rain, strong winds |
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Definition
my produce large hail and weak tornadoes
*watch for breaks |
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Definition
threats Mesocyclones,stronger tornadoes and much larger hail..
**the further apart they are the more tenants |
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Term
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Definition
T storms that develop a strong internal when structure. ( up/down draft)
long lasting T storms that control environment
by definition they are always severe
can cause wind and hail damage |
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Term
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Definition
T storms that develop a strong internal when structure. ( up/down draft)
long lasting T storms that control environment
by definition they are always severe
can cause wind and hail damage |
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Term
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Definition
associated with super cell-
it's a rotating updraft within an intense cumulonimbus cloud/severe thunderstorm
3 to 7 miles across
caused by strong wind speed and wind direction shear aloft
however less than 20% produce tornadoes |
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Term
| mesoscale convective complex |
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Definition
a number of individual tea storms that grow in size and arrange/organize a large convective complex
as much as 1000 times as large as an average air mass thunderstorms
common in the planes to Mississippi
long-lasting, forward speed of 25 mph
has its advantages and disadvantages rain |
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Term
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Definition
means direct, straight ahead
a widespread, fast-moving convective windstorm
damaging wind over areas of 100 miles long and 100 miles across
not as well organized as MCC's
damages everywhere but is not a tornado |
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Term
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Definition
| keep in mind lightning bolt is a diameter of pen |
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Definition
caused by separation of charges created by ice and water in the up-and-down drafts
usually occurs within 20 min. of the beginning cumulus stage
worldwide there are hundred lightning strikes per second
Maine weather killer
there is usually 25 million and mining damage every year
** in a car the "cage effect" diverts electricity not rubber tires |
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Term
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Definition
diameter of the pen
bulky is five times the temperature of the sun's surface 54,000°F
strokes occur less than 1/10 of the second
time rule:5 seconds equals 1 mile in distance from the stroke: lightning one, two, three, four, five, thunder= 1 mile
when considering all lightning: 60% is intra-cloud and 20% is cloud to ground
Marianne Cooper- Works with lightning survivors |
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Term
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Definition
largest hail stone in US historywith 8 inches in diameter and found the Nebraska
-Hale approaches the ground at 100 225 mph hail size and thunderstorms severity is entirely dependent upon the thunderstorms up/down draft strength
freefall velocity-is the rate at which the hail travels
Hail also reflects the most energy back to the radar
larger than 1 inch diameter = severe
largest hail often falls just northeast of tornadoes |
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Term
| straight line t storm winds |
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Definition
create divergence and the damage path
much more common than tornadoes
their divergent and make a widespread damage pattern compared to the convergent damage pattern with tornadoes
in aviation the these are major hazards
microbursts< 2.5 miles / Macrobursts> 2.5 miles |
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Term
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Definition
one of the biggest annual weather killers
* population does not understand the power of moving water
differentiate: flash flooding-rapid on/off set of flooding
River flooding-relatively slow on/off set of flooding
in south-central taxes: we are considered the flash flood capital of the United States why? Because the subsoil( limestone rock layers) hilly nature of the Texas Hill country.. And urbanization |
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Term
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Definition
tornadoes occur in every state but are more frequent in the planes/Mississippi Valley
usually occur in the evening from 3 to 7 PMless than 1% of all other storms worldwide produced tornadoes
April – strongest/violent may – most number average of five p/d
June-average *** over 50% of tornadoes occur between April and June
75% occur between March and July
average movement-SW to NE
average speed-25 mph |
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Term
| tornado climatology basics |
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Definition
toward the end of their lifetime they tend to make abrupt right or left turns a.k.a."roped out" stage
average of 1300 tornadoes p/y
of those 80% are weak (< 110 mph)
19% are strong( 110 to 200 mph)
1% are violent ( > 200 mph-318) |
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Definition
16 hour period began at 9:30 AM on April 3 and ended at Dawn on April 4
337 killed 6000 injured
hardest hit was Xenia, Oklahoma 34 killed |
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Term
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Definition
an intense rotating column of air adapter treats from the base of the Keeneland in this cloud in the shape of a funnel in touch as the ground
atmospheric pressure is about 10% less than standard atmospheric surface pressure low |
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Term
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Definition
a rotating Comite clout that extends downward from the base of the cumulative is cloud but does NOT reach the ground
the circulation does not have to be visible if there is debris being stirred the surface it's a tornado |
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Term
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Definition
a rotating column of air over water that has characteristics of a tornado but much weaker
two types: Fairweather waterspout, tornadic ( super cell) waterspout |
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Term
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Definition
80%-thin and rope like-EF0,EF1
< 5% fatalities
< 10 min. lifetime
65>110 mph..three-mile length, 90 yard width
average warning statistics |
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Term
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Definition
19%-classic wide funnel-EF2, EF3
< 30% fatalities
> 20 min. lifetime
111 to 165 mph/length 15 mi. width 200 yards
very good warning statistics |
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Term
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Definition
<1%-very wide funnel-E4, E5
70% fatality
> 60 min.
166 to 3 18 mph/25+ miles/ width 600 yards
excellent warning statistics |
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Term
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Definition
made in the 70s... Has 12 scales and so far has only used five.
was replaced in 2007 with an enhanced scale that now takes into consideration how the building was constructed |
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Term
| fujita scale based on 3sec gust |
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Definition
made in the 70s... Has 12 scales and so far has only used five.
was replaced in 2007 with an enhanced scale that now takes into consideration how the building was constructed
*this is not the tornado strength scale.. It is a damage scale |
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Term
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Definition
light damage/65 to 85 mph
some damage to gutters or siding branches are broken off trees |
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Definition
moderate damage/86 210 mph
loss of doors, windows and roofs |
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Definition
considerable damage/111 235 mph
mobile homes completely destroyed light object missiles generated.. cars are scooted off the ground |
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Definition
severe damage/when her 36 265 mph
severe damage to large buildings trees debarked heavy cars lifted in Rome structures blow away |
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Definition
devastating damage/166 to 200 mph
whole frame houses completely leveled harsh throne small missiles generated |
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Definition
incredible damage/201 to 318 mph
automobile sized missiles fly through the air structural D formation strong frame houses level incredible phenomena will occur |
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Term
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Definition
| as of the middle the tornado where the small downdraft causes small suction vortices to form around the center... Much like a blender |
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Term
| Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale |
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Definition
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Term
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Definition
sustained winds from 74 to 95 mph
very dangerous winds will produce some damage
dangerous debris loss of roofing and siding etc. example hurricane Dolly 2008 |
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Term
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Definition
winds of 96 210 mph
extremely dangerous ones will cause extensive damage
substantial risk of injury of death to people livestock and pets near total power loss expected example was hurricane Frances in 2004 |
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Term
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Definition
111 to 130 mph
devastating damage will occur high risk of injury to people trees snapped an uprooted example hurricane Ivan 2004 |
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Term
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Definition
winds 130-155 mph
Struck the damage will occur
steelframe's collapse most windows blown out of high-rise buildings unhabitable for weeks and months
hurricane Charley |
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Term
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Definition
winds 130-155 mph
Struck the damage will occur
steelframe's collapse most windows blown out of high-rise buildings unhabitable for weeks and months
hurricane Charley |
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Term
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Definition
when greater than hundred 55 mph catastrophic damage will occur
power outages for weeks and possibly months water shortages example hurricane Andrew |
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Term
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Definition
most occur between 10 and 30° north and south of the equator
* the Corlius effect prevents hurricanes from forming along the equator.
mostly in the north hemisphere
there he machines transferring heat surplus to heat difficient location
were stupid not them |
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Term
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Definition
| common tropical cyclones or areas of low pressure moving from east to west along the equator there are thousands |
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Definition
| area of large low pressure is known as a tropical depression with winds of 20 to 34 mph in an increased number of isobar's |
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Term
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Definition
| area of large low pressure is known as a tropical depression with winds of 20 to 34 mph in an increased number of isobar's |
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Term
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Definition
| tropical storm-more collective isobars rotate around an increasingly low area pressure it becomes deeper and stronger with winds of 35 to 64 mph is at this point that the NHC ( national hurricane Center) issues a name |
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Term
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Definition
| it now becomes a hurricane/typhoon-with winds of 75 mph and stronger |
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Term
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Definition
the "it can't happen to me"
reason for many unnecessary deaths due to hurricanes.. Wave surge comes from wave height which varies due to the coastal slope in which their hurricane lands... Storm surge is the number one killer |
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Term
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Definition
| NAC is in charge of the names there is a five-year semipermanent list of names that are taken off the list when hurricane causes significant damage |
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Term
| Koppen climate classification |
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Definition
"A" climate type-tropical-where all months have an average temperature of 64°F or higher* Austin is not tropical
"B"climate type-arid/semiarid-potential evaporation and transpiration exceed precipitation-always moisture deficient*** unlike the other climate times because it does not include temperature
"c" climate type-subtropical-average tempo coldest month of the year is below 64°F and above 27°F--> Cfa-humid subtropical-is a branch of the C climate type where rainfall is equally distributed throughout the year--** this is Austin.
"D" climate type-temperate-average temperature of the coldest month of the year is low 27°F/in the warmest month is 50°F average** seen in Canada
"E" climate type-polar-average temp to warmest month is <50°F
"H"-highland Mountainsvery complex and tightknit it's controlling factors are elevation and exposure( sunlight) |
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